LOST AND FOUND

What is the relationship between what's in the Senate report, the justifications for war, and what's been found in Iraq -- according to the Times?

It's all in the framing.

President Bush on Monday vigorously defended his decision to go to war against Iraq, saying the invasion was the right thing to do even though no banned weapons had been found there, and claiming progress against terrorism and the spread of unconventional arms. (My emph.)

Notice the need to artificially beef up the problems with the intelligence case. It's pretty clear that we thought we'd find WMD stockpiles in Iraq and it's pretty clear that we haven't. This we would define as "a problem."

But although it's an intelligence problem, it doesn't necessarily mean that the war was unjustified. Look what the slight change there between "weapons stockpiles" and "banned weapons" ellides.

1. Well, the actual, you know, banned weapons. There certainly haven't been "stocks" found, but there have been roughly a dozen warheads found. Now, is this a threshold or a linear question? Is the discovery of any banned weaponry proof that Saddam was a bad actor and a danger? (do you see this as a threshold issue) or Are there possible explanations for a warhead here and a warhead there, so that, really, anything less then what really can be identified legitimately as stockpiles just don't do it as far as proof that Saddam was a threat? (is it a linear issue for you.)

2. Weapons, weapons, weapons. They may not have the sexy, exotic flavor of unconventional weapons stocks, but there were weapons right, left, and center found that broke the parameters laid out for Iraq's military by who knows how many agreements. They were sanctions-busting left and right. Did that make Iraq a threat to us? Well, in the sense that a threat in the region was an issue for us. This matters primarily because our argument was that the international community just couldn't continue to say, "stop -- or we'll say stop again!" And because it speaks to an intent to do harm in the region that sooner or later we'd be called on to resolve: militarily.

3. What about the actual weapons program? Why doesn't that ever count? Why is the name "David Kay" forgotten? He did, after all, report not one, not two, not three, but dozens of violations, in a clear and systematic way, in a pattern of deception, of the agreements that Saddam was told in 1441 that he was being given a last, last chance to live up to.

Here's what Kay said last October:

We have discovered dozens of WMD-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations during the inspections that began in late 2002. The discovery of these deliberate concealment efforts have come about both through the admissions of Iraqi scientists and officials concerning information they deliberately withheld and through physical evidence of equipment and activities that ISG has discovered that should have been declared to the U.N.

That's not, let us remember, a statement based on intelligence, which is always probabilistic and therefore speculative. That's what they actually found.

Was it easy? Well, here's a flavor of the concealment efforts they found:

– A clandestine network of laboratories and safehouses within the Iraqi Intelligence Service that contained equipment subject to U.N. monitoring and suitable for continuing CBW (chemical biological weapons) research.

– A prison laboratory complex, possibly used in human testing of BW (bioweapons) agents, that Iraqi officials working to prepare for U.N. inspections were explicitly ordered not to declare to the U.N.

– Reference strains of biological organisms concealed in a scientist's home, one of which can be used to produce biological weapons.

– New research on BW-applicable agents, brucella and Congo Crimean hemorrhagic fever, and continuing work on ricin and aflatoxin were not declared to the U.N.

– Documents and equipment, hidden in scientists' homes, that would have been useful in resuming uranium enrichment by centrifuge and electromagnetic isotope separation.

– A line of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) not fully declared at an undeclared production facility and an admission that they had tested one of their declared UAVs out to a range of 500 km, 350 km beyond the permissible limit.

– Continuing covert capability to manufacture fuel propellant useful only for prohibited SCUD-variant missiles, a capability that was maintained at least until the end of 2001 and that cooperating Iraqi scientists have said they were told to conceal from the U.N.

– Plans and advanced design work for new long-range missiles with ranges up to at least 1,000 km – well beyond the 150-km range limit imposed by the U.N. Missiles of a 1000 km range would have allowed Iraq to threaten targets throughout the Middle East, including Ankara, Cairo, and Abu Dhabi.

– Clandestine attempts between late-1999 and 2002 to obtain from North Korea technology related to 1,300-km range ballistic missiles – probably the No Dong – 300-km range anti-ship cruise missiles and other prohibited military equipment.

In addition to the discovery of extensive concealment efforts, we have been faced with a systematic sanitization of documentary and computer evidence in a wide range of offices, laboratories and companies suspected of WMD work. The pattern of these efforts to erase evidence – hard drives destroyed, specific files burned, equipment cleaned of all traces of use – are ones of deliberate, rather than random, acts.

For example, on 10 July 2003, an ISG team exploited the Revolutionary Command Council Headquarters in Baghdad. The basement of the main building contained an archive of documents situated on well-organized rows of metal shelving. The basement suffered no fire damage despite the total destruction of the upper floors from coalition air strikes.

Upon arrival, the exploitation team encountered small piles of ash where individual documents or binders of documents were intentionally destroyed. Computer hard drives had been deliberately destroyed. Computers would have had financial value to a random looter; their destruction, rather than removal for resale or reuse, indicates a targeted effort to prevent Coalition forces from gaining access to their contents.

All IIS laboratories visited by IIS exploitation teams have been clearly sanitized, including removal of much equipment, shredding and burning of documents, and even the removal of nameplates from office doors. Although much of the deliberate destruction and sanitization of documents and records probably occurred during the height of OIF combat operations, indications of significant continuing destruction efforts have been found after the end of major combat operations, including entry in May 2003 of the locked gated vaults of the Ba'ath Party intelligence building in Baghdad and highly selective destruction of computer hard drives and data storage equipment, along with the burning of a small number of specific binders that appear to have contained financial and intelligence records, and in July 2003 a site exploitation team at the Abu Ghurayb Prison found one pile of the smoldering ashes from documents that was still warm to the touch.

So, please, lets stop acting and talking and writing as if the intelligence failure here was complete, or as if Iraq was as innocent as the driven snow. Because we've got some pretty hard evidence suggesting otherwise.

That doesn't mean that there aren't debates to be had, important ones, on what to do now with the way intelligence is collected and evaluated, and about whether the war, given what we know now is justified. But lets proceed with those debates honestly.

Now, back to the Times for a moment. Here's their second graf:

In his first substantive remarks on foreign policy since the Senate Intelligence Committee's report on Friday saying that the main assessments used to justify the war had been overstated or unsupported by the underlying intelligence, Mr. Bush briefly acknowledged the committee's concerns and called its conclusions helpful. (My emph.)

Well, I haven't read the report. But my understanding is that the CIA gets slammed pretty hard on WMD. Okay, you could argue pretty plausibly that was a main justification for war, without a doubt. My understanding is that the report takes the same position on the link to terrorism as the 9/11 commission, that in fact the CIA is embracing it. I haven't heard that the report says anything at all about the humanitarian justification (I'd be surprised if it did, and even more surprised if there was a suggestion that our pre-war assessments of Iraq were wrong on that score unless it was because we were underestimating the horror.) And I've likewise not gotten any hints that the report speaks to the democratization arguments.

So, there may be a debate over the various arguments for the way being overstated, but those arguments are not, as this graf suggests, coming out of this report.

This report should be the platform for a complex and important debate over the war and the pre-war intelligence. But, please -- lets frame that debate honestly, so that we're weighing the right things and balancing them appropriately.

Comments

[Media Hound]

The bottom line with Iraq remains, and always has been, that in March
2003 Saddam had failed to comply with his disarmament obligations under
UNSC 1441, his "final opportunity to comply."

Here's what the UN was saying at the time:

"Iraq appears not to have come to a genuine acceptance -- not even
today -- of the disarmament, which was demanded of it and which it
needs to carry out to win the confidence of the world and to live
in peace."

    Dr. Hans Blix, Chief UN Weapons Inspector
    Addressing the UN Security Council
    January 27, 2003
    http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusnewsiraq.asp?NewsID=354&sID=6

[Media Hound]

Please read John Edwards' US Senate floor statement on Iraq and WMD:
 

Floor Statement by John Edwards

IRAQI DICTATOR MUST GO
(Senate - September 12, 2002)

As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I firmly believe
that the issue of Iraq is not about politics. It's about national
security. We know that for at least 20 years, Saddam Hussein has
obsessively sought weapons of mass destruction through every means
available. We know that he has chemical and biological weapons today.
He has used them in the past, and he is doing everything he can to
build more. Each day he inches closer to his longtime goal of nuclear
capability -- a capability that could be less than a year away.

I believe that Saddam Hussein's Iraqi regime represents a clear threat
to the United States, to our allies, to our interests around the world,
and to the values of freedom and democracy we hold dear.

Saddam has proven his willingness to act irrationally and brutally against
his neighbors and against his own people. Iraq's destructive capacity has
the potential to throw the entire Middle East into chaos, and poses a mortal
threat to our vital ally, Israel.

What's more, the terrorist threat against America is all too clear. Thousands
of terrorist operatives around the world would pay anything to get their hands
on Saddam's arsenal, and there is every possibility that he could turn his
weapons over to these terrorists. No one can doubt that if the terrorists of
September 11th had had weapons of mass destruction, they would have used them.
On September 12, 2002, we can hardly ignore the terrorist threat, and the
serious danger that Saddam would allow his arsenal to be used in aid of terror.

Iraq has continued to develop its arsenal in defiance of the collective will
of the international community, as expressed through the United Nations Security
Council. It is violating the terms of the cease-fire that ended the Gulf War and
ignoring as many as 16 UN Security Council resolutions – including 11 resolutions
concerning Iraq's efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction.

These UN resolutions are not unilateral American demands. They involve obligations
Iraq has undertaken to the international community. By ignoring them, Saddam
Hussein is undermining the credibility of the United Nations, openly violating
international law, and making a mockery of the very idea of international collective
action which is so important to the United States and our allies.

The time has come for decisive action. With our allies, we must do whatever is
necessary to guard against the threat posed by an Iraq armed with weapons of
mass destruction, and under the thumb of Saddam Hussein.

http://edwards.senate.gov/statements/20020912_iraq.html

[Athena]

Two cheers for Edwards at the time---or at least his intern who wrote it.

It was just grand up until the last two paragraphs.

[Media Hound]

Athena, this last paragraph?

"The path of confronting Saddam is full of hazards. But the path of
inaction is far more dangerous. This week, a week where we remember the
sacrifice of thousands of innocent Americans made on 9-11, the choice
could not be starker. Had we known that such attacks were imminent, we
surely would have used every means at our disposal to prevent them and
take out the plotters. We cannot wait for such a terrible event – or, if
weapons of mass destruction are used, one far worse – to address the clear
and present danger posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq."

http://edwards.senate.gov/statements/20020912_iraq.html

[Marc]

If you want more proof that the Clinton Administration was convinced that Saddam had WMD's, revisit "Operation Desert Fox"

http://ussneverdock.blogspot.com/2004/07/operation-desert-fox-degrading-iraqs.html

MISSION GOALS: To degrade Saddam Hussein's ability to make and to use weapons of mass destruction.

One hour into the mission Clinton addressed the nation thusly...

"Saddam Hussein must not be allowed to threaten his neighbors or
the world with nuclear arms, poison gas or biological weapons,"
Clinton said. The Iraqi dictator has used these weapons against
his neighbors and his own people, he said, and "left unchecked,
Saddam Hussein will use these terrible weapons again."

I mean, in order to "use these terrible weapons again", you have to have them. Right?

[Athena]

Ahh, no, the last paragraph you had originally posted

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